'Wild ride' for coffee as Trump tariffs, supply issues push prices up – Australian Broadcasting Corporation

'Wild ride' for coffee as Trump tariffs, supply issues push prices up – Australian Broadcasting Corporation


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By Dominic Cansdale
ABC Gold Coast
Topic:Cost of Living
Cafes are struggling to profit from coffee. (ABC Gold Coast: Dominic Cansdale)
The cost of producing coffee is rising, tightening margins for cafes considering increasing their prices.
The cost of coffee at supermarkets has also increased. 
Industry leaders predict barista-brewed coffee prices may need to rise to up to $12.
The cost of your daily flat white is set to increase further as the coffee market grapples with a perfect blend of falling supply, surging demand and stubborn inflation. 
But there is more at stake than a morning caffeine buzz.
There are 27,000 cafes and coffee shops in Australia, employing 139,000 people and representing a $14 billion market, according to a January 2025 IBISWorld report.
In 2024, international brand Lavazza warned its costs had jumped by $1.3 billion, while disasters stripped coffee bean crops worldwide.
Combine that with the rising cost of rent, energy and wages, and there are predictions a barista-brewed coffee will rise to $10, well above the current $5.50 average.
But 2025 brought another slew of challenges for coffee roasters, with one large-scale supplier warning that cafes must "bite the bullet" and up their prices.
Rachel-May Follan runs Whyld Coffee, a small-scale roaster on the Gold Coast that supplies 11 cafes with specialty beans imported from South America and Africa.
She described the past 12 months as "a really wild ride", especially after US President Donald Trump's tariffs announcement "ignited panic buying" among some roasters.
Rachel-May Follan says a lot of work goes into the daily coffee. (ABC Gold Coast: Dominic Cansdale)
"It's kind of like toilet paper in COVID-19," Ms Follan said.
"It doesn't necessarily need to be that way, but it is."
In 2024, Ms Follan paid about $4 a kilogram for organic green coffee beans. The price has now jumped to $14 a kilogram.
"You don't realise how much work goes into that daily coffee," she said.
Pablo & Rusty's Coffee Roasters 2024 research shows the breakdown of costs for a small takeaway flat white. (ABC News: Lindsay Dunbar)
"Thousands of hands have gone into back-breaking work for it. These are hand-picked cherries from a tree that are then pulped, that are then dried in the sun for 30 days, rotated by hand."
However, Ms Follan said the coffee itself only accounted for about 13 per cent of the cost per cup.
Her cafe makes about a gross $1 profit off each cup sold — and that is before deducting the cost of rent, wages, packaging and milk.
"The outcome should look like cafes increasing their prices, we're talking 50 cents, but that depends on [the type of] coffee," she said.
Coffee lovers who choose to brew at home are also seeing prices skyrocket.
The ABC analysed the online prices of nearly 44,000 products at Coles and Woolworths, revealing a sales technique used on thousands of items.
The supermarket price of coffee has risen sharply over the past six months.
Australia's two major supermarket chains, Coles and Woolworths, both said external pressures were driving record-high coffee prices.
"We are doing what we can to help customers find value when they shop with us," a Coles spokesperson said in a statement.
A Woolworths spokesperson said retail price hikes were directly linked to supplier and manufacturer increases.
"The industry is managing higher commodity prices of green coffee beans, and we are working with our suppliers to ensure we have a range of products in these categories to suit all budgets," the spokesperson said.
One of the country's largest specialty roasters, Essential Coffee, sells about 180 tonnes of coffee a year to customers in Australia, New Zealand and Singapore, retailing at $35 to $55 per kilogram.
Chief executive Todd Hiscock said his business's labour costs had increased 9 per cent, rent 29 per cent and insurance 6 per cent over the past two years.
On top of that, the wholesale cost of coffee had increased by 119 per cent since November 2023.
Todd Hiscock says there have been disruptions to global coffee supply. (ABC Gold Coast: Dominic Cansdale)
"[The] Chinese have very much converted from tea to coffee," he said.
"They're buying up unprecedented levels of coffee supplies. Often they're taking a whole Brazilian stock load in ways that's never been seen before."
Mr Hiscock said on top of increasing global demand, "climate-driven weather events" had disrupted supply.
"You're seeing crops just get wiped out by massive frosts and storms and cyclone events, bushfires too," he said.
"Also the removal of crops with more urbanisation."
The growing popularity of alternative milks, which can cost up to double the price of cow's milk, also adds to price pressures.
Plant-based milk costs 20 to 100 per cent more than cow's milk. (ABC Gold Coast: Dominic Cansdale)
"For a barista quality one as a wholesaler, we're paying as much as $4, even more than $4 a litre," Mr Hiscock said.
He said Australia's median coffee prices needed to increase to between $8 to $12 per cup, similar to what North Americans paid, or risk losing the supply of coffee to bigger, more lucrative markets.
"We've got to come to the party and pay in a competitive global market," he said.
"It's hard because people are very sensitive to their beloved coffee and when you move the price up, you find not just a lot of negative reaction, you find some very terse expletives."
Ms Follan said predictions of $10 flat whites may be pre-emptive but not impossible.
The rising cost of coffee beans is driving cafes to increase prices. (ABC Gold Coast: Dominic Cansdale)
"We're not saying that it needs to reach crazy, crazy numbers," she said.
"I do think it should be around $6 to $7."
But she said a "cafe is a lot more than just a cup of coffee".
"You could be going in because you like the playlist or you like the ambience. It's an experience as well," she said.
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Lewis Hamilton meets UK PM Keir Starmer to discuss education initiative, says “I struggled in school and – Times of India

Lewis Hamilton meets UK PM Keir Starmer to discuss education initiative, says “I struggled in school and – Times of India

The TOI Sports Desk excels in a myriad of roles that capture the essence of live sporting events and deliver compelling content to readers worldwide. From running live blogs for India and non-India cricket matches to global spectacles featuring Indian talents, like the Chess World Cup final featuring Praggnanandhaa and the Badminton World Championships semifinal featuring HS Prannoy, our live coverage extends to all mega sporting events. We extensively cover events like the Olympics, Asian Games, Cricket World Cups, FIFA World Cups, and more. The desk is also adept at writing comprehensive match reports and insightful post-match commentary, complemented by stats-based articles that provide an in-depth analysis of player performances and team dynamics. We track news wires for key stories, conduct exclusive player interviews in both text and video formats, and file content from print editions and reporters. We keep track of all viral stories, trending topics and produce our own copies on the subjects. We deliver accurate, engaging, and up-to-the-minute sports content, round the clock.
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Routes & Networks Latest: Rolling Daily Updates (W/C May 5, 2025) – Aviation Week Network

Routes & Networks Latest: Rolling Daily Updates (W/C May 5, 2025) – Aviation Week Network

The latest airline route news, featuring network changes, schedule alterations, codeshares and interline agreements.
 
Air Transat will launch a new nonstop route between Toronto Pearson and Georgetown, Guyana, as part of its winter 2025-26 program. The 2X-weekly service will operate on Tuesdays and Fridays from Dec. 16 through April 24, 2026. “With this new route, we are expanding our presence in South America while optimizing the use of our aircraft,” said Sebastian Ponce, Transat’s chief revenue officer. “This addition meets a strong demand from the Guyanese diaspora in Canada and appeals to leisure travelers seeking new destinations.”
Flydubai will begin daily flights to Peshawar on May 15, expanding its Pakistan network to seven cities. The service to Bacha Khan International Airport will operate from Terminal 2 at Dubai International Airport. The carrier first launched service to Pakistan in 2010 with flights to Karachi and has since added routes to Faisalabad, Islamabad, Lahore, Multan, Quetta and Sialkot.
Vietnam Airlines has launched flights between Hanoi and Hyderabad, strengthening its presence in the Indian market with a fourth gateway following New Delhi, Mumbai and Bengaluru. The new route operates three times per week on Wednesdays, Fridays and Sundays. “Hyderabad serves as an important gateway to southern India,” says Nguyen Trung Hieu, country manager India at Vietnam Airlines.
Starlux Airlines will launch a new direct route between Taipei and Shimojishima Airport in Miyakojima City, Japan, starting Aug. 22. The airline becomes the first Taiwanese carrier to offer nonstop service to Shimojishima. Flights will operate twice a week using an Airbus A321neo, with a flight time of approximately 1.5 hr., and run through Oct. 24.
 
Arajet, the Dominican Republic–based LCC, will launch a new nonstop route connecting Santo Domingo’s Las Américas International Airport (SDQ) and Boston Logan International Airport starting Nov. 20. The service will operate four times per week. The new route marks Arajet’s second gateway in the U.S. northeast, complementing existing service from Newark Liberty International Airport. Additionally, the airline will introduce nonstop flights from SDQ to Buenos Aires’ Ministro Pistarini International Airport from Dec. 12. Service will be twice a week. Arajet will operate both routes using Boeing 737-8 aircraft.
Delta Air Lines will offer new year-round daily service between New York LaGuardia and Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport starting Nov. 6, expanding its footprint along Florida’s Gulf Coast. The new route follows Delta’s earlier announcement of seasonal Saturday service between the two airports for summer 2025. The year-round flights will be operated using Embraer 175 aircraft. Additionally, Delta has paused daily nonstop service to Tel Aviv from New York John F. Kennedy International Airport through May 19. The SkyTeam alliance member says the move is in “response to the ongoing conflict in the region.”
Air France plans to increase frequencies between Paris Charles de Gaulle and New Delhi this winter. Flights will be operated on Tuesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays with a Boeing B777-200ER aircraft.
TUI has launched service from Newcastle International Airport, England, to Agadir, Morocco. The 2X-weekly service will operate during the summer season. Chris Logan, commercial director at TUI UK, said the route adds to the operator’s growing portfolio from Newcastle and reflects its commitment to offering more destination choices.
Oman Air will ramp up its domestic operations for the 2025 Khareef season, offering up to 12X-daily flights between Muscat and Salalah starting July 1. The move aims to support domestic tourism during the popular monsoon period in southern Oman. To meet rising demand, the airline has added 70,000 additional seats on the Muscat–Salalah route through the end of the year, marking a 16% increase compared to the same period in 2024.
 
Air New Zealand is suspending flights between Christchurch and Gold Coast, Australia, between November 2025 and March 2026. The airline currently operates the route twice a week using Airbus A320neo aircraft, according to OAG Schedules Analyser data. “This decision reflects ongoing demand and market conditions, along with our wider fleet constraints, which mean we need to make careful decisions about where we operate over the period,” a statement from the carrier says. “We remain committed to providing reliable services across our network. This suspension will only affect a small number of customers with bookings.”
Transavia France will expand its domestic network from March 29, 2026, with the launch of new routes from Paris Orly to Nice, Marseille and Toulouse. The airline plans to operate up to eight daily flights to both Nice and Toulouse, and two to Marseille. “Summer 2026 will mark a key milestone in Transavia’s development,” Chairman and CEO Olivier Mazzucchelli says. “We will offer a service tailored to the needs of our customers traveling from Nice, Marseille and Toulouse, with flight frequencies that allow for same-day return trips and fast access to central Paris.”
LATAM Airlines Brasil plans to open a new route between Campinas and Brasília from Aug. 1, operating 21X-weekly using Airbus A320-family aircraft. From Sept. 13, the airline also plans to add a Parnaíba-Fortaleza route with up to 3X-weekly frequencies using A319s and A320s. Starting in August, LATAM will also increase frequencies on Brasília-Belo Horizonte from 18 to 21X-weekly; Brasília-Vitória from seven to 14X-weekly; Brasília-Florianópolis from seven to 14X-weekly; and Brasília-Goiânia from 14 to 21X-weekly.
Somon Air is launching a new route between Tajikistan and Egypt. Flights connecting Dushanbe and Sharm El-Sheikh will commence on May 11 using Boeing 737-800 and 737-900 aircraft. Service will be once a week. “The launch of the Sharm El-Sheikh flight is a major step in strengthening bilateral ties between our countries,” Somon Air CEO Abdulkosim Valiev says.
U.S. ULCC Frontier Airlines will open 3X-weekly service between Chicago O’Hare International Airport and Baltimore-Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport from July 7. The carrier will also launch 2X-weekly service between Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, and Trenton, New Jersey, from July 10. Both routes will be flown with Airbus A320-family aircraft.
Qatar Airways is increasing service to Toronto and São Paulo. The airline will serve Toronto Pearson Airport with five flights per week from June 19, and São Paulo/Guarulhos International Airport with 17X-weekly flights from June 25. “We launched our services to Toronto Pearson Airport less than six months ago and have seen a strong response in the market,” CCO Thierry Antinori says. “At the same time, we are expanding in South America with additional flights to São Paulo, a key gateway and strategic hub for business and leisure travel.”
 
Air Canada has unveiled its most extensive Latin American network expansion for winter 2025-26, launching 13 new routes and increasing seat capacity by 16%. The airline will introduce a 3X-weekly service between Toronto and Rio de Janeiro starting Dec. 4, alongside new weekly flights to Cartagena, Colombia, from both Toronto and Montreal. Montreal will see a 2X-weekly service to Guatemala City and 3X-weekly flights to Santiago. New Caribbean routes include Ottawa and Halifax service to Nassau, Bahamas, and Montego Bay, Jamaica; Quebec City flights to Fort-de-France; and Toronto service to Pointe-à-Pitre. Vancouver sees weekly flights to Huatulco, Mexico, while there will be a new 3X-weekly route connecting Toronto to Guadalajara, Mexico. Air Canada is also boosting capacity on existing routes, with Toronto-Nassau increasing to 12X-weekly flights and Montreal-Punta Cana expanding to 3X-daily services during peak periods. The growth will provide more than 80,000 weekly seats across more than 55 daily flights.
Emirates will launch daily nonstop service between Dubai and Hangzhou starting July 30, marking its fifth gateway into mainland China alongside Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai and Shenzhen. The route will operate using a three-class Boeing 777-300ER, offering 2,478 weekly seats. “As an emerging global hub for innovation, e-commerce and advanced manufacturing, Hangzhou will open doors to new opportunities for our passenger and cargo operations, further strengthening the vital economic and technological exchanges between the Middle East and China,” CCO Adnan Kazim says.
AirAsia X is suspending flights between Kuala Lumpur and Nairobi, Kenya, from Sept. 1. The LCC launched the route in November 2024, becoming the airline’s first flights to Africa. However, it says that flights are being canceled “as part of its network optimisation initiative due to lower-than-expected travel demand.” A statement added: “We continue to review our network and consumer demand and will make adjustments from time to time to ensure commercial viability and best value fares for our guests across our network. If we witness strong demand for [AirAsia X] to return on this route, we will review the potential again.”
Air Transat plans to introduce a new daily route between Montreal and Guadalajara, Mexico, as well as extending its Madrid route into the winter season. The airline will launch a 2X-weekly service to Guadalajara starting Dec. 13, operating on Thursdays and Saturdays. The route marks Air Transat’s first nonstop flights to the city. Additionally, beginning Feb. 18, the carrier will extend its Montreal-Madrid service with 2X-weekly flights on Wednesdays and Fridays. “By targeting high-potential markets like Guadalajara and gradually making our European service available year-round, we are strengthening our position from Eastern Canada to the south and Europe, while maximizing our fleet’s operational efficiency,” says Transat Chief Revenue Officer Sebastian Ponce.
Uzbek carrier Air Samarkand has operated its latest international scheduled service to Tel Aviv. Flights will initially be weekly using Airbus A330 or A321 aircraft, rising to 2X-weekly frequencies from July. “We are seeing steady interest in this route from tourist, pilgrim and business travelers, and are delighted to confirm a second service starting from July,” CEO Zafar Butayev says.
David Casey is Editor in Chief of Routes, the global route development community's trusted source for news and information.
Aaron Karp is a Contributing Editor to the Aviation Week Network.
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Record number of migrants cross English Channel in 2025 so far – BBC

Record number of migrants cross English Channel in 2025 so far – BBC

The number of migrants arriving in the UK after crossing the English Channel has reached a new record for the first four months of the year.
Some 656 people arrived in 11 small boats on Saturday, taking the total number of people crossing in 2025 so far to 8,064, according to provisional Home Office figures.
Less than half-way through April, this is already higher than the 7,567 people who crossed the Channel over the first four months of last year – a record high at the time.
A Home Office spokesperson said the government has a "serious credible plan to finally restore order to our asylum system", and it will "stop at nothing" to dismantle the business models of people-smuggling gangs.
There were 5,946 arrivals in the first four months of 2023, and then 6,691 in the same period in 2022.
The 656 people who entered the UK on Saturday is the highest number of crossings recorded in a single day this year.
However, the highest number of daily crossings recorded was on 3 September 2022, when 1,305 people were documented to have crossed into the UK via small boats.
In a statement, the French Coastguard said it had rescued 50 people from various boats at sea on Saturday, after some migrants asked for help.
Twenty-eight passengers were taken to Calais, in northern France, from one boat that got into difficulty, and 19 people were rescued on another boat while the rest onboard continued their journey.
Three people from another boat were taken to the quayside in Boulogne-sur-Mer, while others on board refused assistance and continued on their way, it added.
Earlier this year the government announced a series of measures to tackle people smuggling, including new criminal offence of endangering the lives of others at sea with a jail term of up to five years, expected to come into effect this year.
A Home Office spokesperson said: "We all want to end dangerous small boat crossings, which threaten lives and undermine our border security."
They said the government's plan includes "tougher enforcement powers, ramping up returns to their highest levels for more than half a decade and a major crackdown on illegal working to end the false promise of jobs used by gangs to sell spaces on boats".
Shadow home secretary Chris Philp described the figures as a "national disgrace."
"This news underlines what we all knew – Keir Starmer has lost control of our borders," he said, adding: "The gangs are laughing, the boats keep coming, and taxpayers are left to foot the bill".
In response, a Labour spokesperson said 8,325 people crossed the Channel in a 10-week period from July to September 2021, during Philp's time as immigration minister, "and we didn't hear him calling those figures a national disgrace".
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With data science and machine learning applications in subsurface engineering, Iyiola tackles oil, gas challenge using AI, CO injection – The Guardian Nigeria News

With data science and machine learning applications in subsurface engineering, Iyiola tackles oil, gas challenge using AI, CO injection – The Guardian Nigeria News

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By : Guardian Nigeria
Date: 7 Jun 2025
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Zainab Iyiola, a rising Nigerian researcher in petroleum engineering and data science, is gaining recognition on the global academic stage for her contribution to a groundbreaking study on enhanced oil recovery (EOR) using carbon dioxide and low-salinity water.
Her work features as a co-authored chapter in a 2024 Taylor & Francis publication, titled, Data Science and Machine Learning Applications in Subsurface Engineering, a peer-reviewed volume comprising high-impact studies shaping the future of hydrocarbon production.
Chapter 7 of the book, titled, Carbon Dioxide Low Salinity Water Alternating Gas (CO₂ LSWAG) Oil Recovery Factor Prediction in Carbonate Reservoirs, tackles a long-standing challenge in the oil and gas sector: how to efficiently extract more oil from carbonate reservoirs without increasing environmental or economic costs. The chapter applies advanced data-driven modeling to this issue and introduces a novel hybrid injection technique.
Iyiola’s contribution centre on the development of predictive models that estimate how much oil can be recovered when alternating carbon dioxide with low-salinity water injections in carbonate formations, a method known as CO₂ LSWAG.
This emerging technique is attracting international attention for its ability to combine environmental responsibility with technical efficiency.

Compared to traditional waterflooding or standalone CO₂ injection, the hybrid approach enhances both pressure support and wettability alteration in the rock, unlocking significant additional oil volumes.
What distinguishes the study is its use of machine learning to model the complex fluid interactions involved. Instead of relying solely on conventional reservoir simulations, which are resource-intensive and time-consuming, Iyiola and her team implemented two machine learning algorithms, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) and the Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH), to develop proxy models.
These models were trained on extensive simulation datasets to forecast oil recovery factors under varying injection conditions and rock properties.
The results were striking.
The GMDH model, in particular, delivered oil recovery factor predictions as high as 99 percent, outperforming traditional forecasting methods. These data-driven models also proved robust in handling noisy and non-linear relationships, making them particularly valuable for field-level application.
“This work demonstrates how machine learning can support strategic decisions in reservoir development,” says Iyiola. “The models we built allow engineers to predict outcomes with minimal computational cost, accelerating planning and improving efficiency in the field.”

Her innovation has drawn praise from experts in the field. “Zainab’s contribution marks a turning point in data-driven EOR modeling,” reveals Dr. Eric Thompson Brantson, Senior Lecturer at the University of Mines and Technology.
“From her undergraduate days, she consistently demonstrated intellectual curiosity, discipline, and a rare blend of engineering intuition and computational skill. Her work today represents the future of sustainable petroleum engineering, and I have no doubt she will continue to drive innovation at the global level.”
Experts believe the implications of this study could be especially transformative for countries like Nigeria. With vast carbonate reserves across the Niger Delta and other basins, the CO₂ LSWAG method offers a promising pathway to boost production from mature fields without requiring major infrastructure overhauls. Additionally, the partial sequestration of CO₂ during injection aligns with national and global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

The study also highlights the growing influence of Nigerian researchers in international scientific advancement. Iyiola, who brings a unique blend of petroleum engineering knowledge and data science expertise, played a leading role in designing and validating the machine learning models.
Her ability to bridge traditional reservoir engineering with modern computational methods is gaining attention across academia and industry. In addition to her technical achievements, Iyiola’s work contributes to a broader push toward smart EOR strategies that incorporate carbon management and predictive analytics.

Her research portfolio includes efforts in Carbon Capture, Utilisation, and Storage (CCUS), hydrogen energy modeling, and the creation of decision-support tools for optimising energy infrastructure.
Currently pursuing graduate studies in petroleum engineering and data science at the University of Oklahoma, Iyiola is a graduate researcher at the university’s prestigious Well Construction and Technology Centre.
There, she is involved in a U.S. Department of Transportation-funded project aimed at improving the safety and reliability of hydrogen pipeline infrastructure, a line of research with the potential to transform global energy systems.
She previously graduated top of her class from the University of Mines and Technology in Ghana and was selected as one of the top 100 petroleum engineering students worldwide for the 2022 International Petroleum Technology Conference (IPTC) Education Week in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
In 2023, she was named one of only eight Africans to receive the African Energy Chamber’s Energy Scholar Award. In 2024, she was also one of just four global recipients of the SPE Egbert Imomoh Scholarship, one of the Society of Petroleum Engineers’ most competitive and prestigious scholarships awarded yearly to exceptional African graduate students demonstrating leadership potential and academic excellence in petroleum engineering.

Most recently, Iyiola was awarded the prestigious rank of Fellow by the National Institute of Professional Engineers and Scientists (NIPES), a recognition reserved for professionals who have demonstrated outstanding leadership and technical excellence in the field.
This honour reflects her growing stature within the global petroleum engineering community and underscores her contributions to advancing innovation in the energy sector. Professionally, Iyiola is an active member of the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE), where she supports technical outreach, mentors young engineers, and champions the integration of data-driven technologies in energy exploration and production.
One of her recent research works, titled, Investigating the Impact of Feature Engineering Techniques on the Predictions of Well Log Attributes, has been accepted for presentation at the 2025 Nigeria Annual International Conference and Exhibition (NAICE), following a rigorous blind peer review process.
NAICE is one of Africa’s most prestigious oil and gas conferences and a flagship event of SPE, attracting leading professionals, researchers, and industry stakeholders from around the world.
After the conference, the paper will be published on OnePetro, the world’s largest repository of technical literature in petroleum engineering, widely regarded as a prestigious platform for disseminating cutting-edge research within the professional energy community.

As Nigeria explores sustainable methods to improve oil recovery, curb emissions, and modernise its energy systems through data and technology, researchers like Zainab Iyiola are helping to chart the course, bringing innovation, precision, and purpose to the forefront of the nation’s energy future.
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Japan to link health insurance non-payment to visa renewal – Nikkei Asia

Japan to link health insurance non-payment to visa renewal – Nikkei Asia

Government plans to detect foreigners who dodge mandatory enrollment
Japan’s national health insurance system does not keep records by nationality or residence status, so few municipalities know how much foreigners have contributed in premiums. (Photo by Yoshiyuki Tamai)
TOKYO — Japan is revising its public health insurance system as it seeks to ensure foreigners are up to date on their payments, Nikkei has learned.
The government plans to revamp the national health insurance database in the fiscal year starting April 2026, aiming to use information such as overdue payments to screen foreigners when renewing their residency beginning in fiscal 2027.

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